Warren's World Cup Pool
Tournament Simulation Engine

Group & Bracket Simulator

Simulate outcomes for group stage standings using Path-Adjusted metrics, and automatically route advancing seeds into the knockout tree.

Loading W-Index feed...
Mode:
Chaos level (Stochasticity) 50%
Monte Carlo Visualization

Probability Atlas

Run the tournament again and again to see each nation's range of outcomes. Every color band shows the probability that a team's journey ends at that stage.

Ready once W-Index ratings load. No pool or entry data is used.
Run the atlas to reveal the tournament's probability landscape.
Monte Carlo Visualization II

Fate Field

A flag-level view of strength versus survival. Move the terminal point to see which nations rise above their rating, which favorites hold firm, and where the tournament becomes volatile.

Quarterfinal probability
Run the Probability Atlas above to populate the Fate Field.
W-Index strength

Ready to Run Simulation

Configure your preferred Simulation Mode above, and then click Simulate Group Stage to generate tournament outcomes.

How the math operates:
- Stochastic Mode: Matches calculate scores using random base outcomes layered with team W-Index margins. Move the chaos slider to modify unpredictability.
- W-Index Prediction Mode: Standardizes group stage order strictly on Path-Adjusted W-Index strength, selects the top 8 3rd-place teams, resolves R32 paths via permutations, and advances favorites purely on original W-Index.
Pos Team Group Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts Status

Semifinals

Third Place Match

Grand Final

📊 104 simulated matches ready for export